• The Latino share of the electorate continues to grow rapidly. Hispanics constituted 7% of the national electorate in 2000, a 40% increase over the 5% share in 1998. This suggests that the “spike” in Latino voters experienced over the 1994, 1996, and 1998 election cycles was not a one-time phenomenon, but in fact represents a permanent trend.

• Gov. George W. Bush made important inroads into the Latino vote. Between 24% and 35% of Hispanic voters supported Gov. Bush, according to various exit polls. The consensus of the polls represents a substantial increase over the 21% of the Latino electorate that supported Sen. Bob Dole (See Table 1), but represents a smaller share of the Hispanic vote than the approximately 43% that Gov. Bush received in his home state of Texas.

• However, Vice President Al Gore was the choice of a strong majority of Latino voters. Vice President Gore attracted between 62% and 73% of the Hispanic vote, compared to the 72% and 61% of Latino voters who supported President Clinton in 1996 and 1992, respectively.

Table I:

SOURCE: CNN Exit Polls, published on the internet

• Hispanic voters constituted the margin of victory in key “battleground” states for both presidential candidates. In New Mexico, for example, the combination of high Latino turnout and strong pro-Gore margins swung the state to the Vice President. Conversely, in states like Arizona, the improvement in the Latino vote for Gov. Bush, compared to that for Sen. Dole four years earlier. Provided his margin of victory. While much is being made of the “Nader factor” in many of these battleground states, in virtually every case Latinos were a far more important swing vote. (See Table II.)

Table II:

SOURCE: CNN Exit Polls, published on the internet

• Latinos appear to have made the difference in important Congressional races. Although definitive state-by-state and district-by-district demographic turnout data are not yet available, Hispanic voters appear to have been crucial in victories by Democrats in several hotly contested Congressional races in California. In addition, while it is too early to tell, anecdotal evidence suggests that Latino voters were key to the outcome of Senatorial elections in Florida, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington state.